While slowing, job growth in 10 of 11 focused metro areas
will outpace the state over the next two years
The recently published Business Forecasting Center’s 2nd Quarter of 2007 forecast calls for a decline in the housing market, which will cause significant job losses in the Construction sector over the next two years. Among the 11 focused metro areas, San Francisco, Fresno, Merced, Stockton, and Modesto will take the biggest hit, losing more construction jobs (in relative terms) than the other regions. At the same time, however, all 11 metro areas will experience strong growth in the services sectors (including Professional and Business, Leisure and Hospitality, and Education and Health), as well as solid growth in the Trade, Transportation, and Utility sector. Job gains will outweigh job losses, allowing these metro areas to see milder but positive job growth.
The same story line applies to the state of California in general. However, in addition to job losses in the Construction sector, the state will also see job losses in the Manufacturing and the Federal Government sectors. Between 2007 and 2009, all 11 metro areas except Modesto will see an annual job growth of 1.2% or higher, outpacing the state’s job growth of 1.1%. Modesto, on the other hand, will average 1.0% growth during the same period due to job losses occurring not only in the Construction sector but also in the Manufacturing and Information sectors.
Merced will lead the other metro areas, growing the strongest at 1.9% annually from 2007 through 2009. Fueling the Merced economy is the solid growth in its Federal Government and Manufacturing sectors, striding together with the strong growth in services sectors. Stockton will be in the top four, growing at an annual rate of 1.3%. Leading the Stockton economy adding jobs will be the Professional Business Services and the Leisure and Hospitality Services sectors, growing at annual rates of 3.1% and 2.4%, respectively.
The complete forecast report can be downloaded at: http://forecast.pacific.edu
