Population Growth in San Joaquin County Outpaces the State and the Nation

As the U.S. total population will reach 300 million in the closing of 2006, the San Joaquin County population will still be approaching 700 thousands.  Relatively speaking, however, the county has grown much faster than the U.S. as well as the state of California since 1976.  Between 1975 and 2005, the county’s population grew an average 2.7% per year, far outpacing the U.S. and the state at 1.8% and 1.1%, respectively.

Driving the strong population growth in the county are the strong total net migration and the gradually rising natural increase (the excess of births over deaths).  Total net migration consists of two components: international migration and net-domestic migration.  The contribution of the international migration has been more or less stable, hovering around 3,000 per year.  The net-domestic migration, on the other hand, fluctuates considerably.  In fact it is the fluctuations in the net-domestic migration that drive the ups and downs in the county’s population change.  For instance, during the strong annual growth of 3.1% between 2000 and 2005, when the county received an influx of migrants from the Bay Area, the net-domestic migration alone contributed nearly 50% of the county’s total population gain.

Graph of the Week, July 3, 2006, Business Forecasting Center, University of the Pacific